Method for Forecasting Ionospheric Electron Content Fluctuations Based on the Optical Flow Algorithm

Abstract

We present the optical flow algorithm for forecasting the rate of total electron content index (OFROTI). It consists of a method for predicting maps of rapid fluctuations of ionospheric electron content in terms of global navigation satellite system (GNSS) dual-frequency phase measurements of the rate of change of total electron content index (ROTI). The forecast is made in space and time, at horizons up to more than 6 h. These forecast maps will consist of the ROTI spatial distribution in the northern hemisphere above 45° latitude. The prediction method models the ROTI spatial distribution as a pseudoconservative flux, i.e., exploiting the inertia of the flux of ROTI to determine the future position. This idea is implemented as a modification of the optical flow image processing technique. The algorithm has been modified to deal with the nonconservation of the ROTI quantity in time. We show that the method can predict both, the local value of ROTI and also the regions with ROTI above a given level, better than the prediction using the current map as forecast, i.e., predicting by a current map from horizons of 15 min up to 6 h. The method was tested on 11 representative active and calm days during 2015 and 2018 from the multi-GNSS (GPS, GLONASS, Galileo, and Beidou) multifrequency measurements of more than 250 multi-GNSS receivers above 45°N latitude, including the high rate (1 Hz) measurements of Greenland geodetic network (GNET) network among the International GNSS Service network.