Method for Estimating Statewide Transit Needs and Investment Priorities for Rural and Small Urban Areas

Abstract

This study demonstrated a method for identifying statewide transit needs and gaps, prioritizing investment needs for statewide transit planning, collecting better data for the demand-response transit level of service, estimating costs of needed improvements, and projecting service needs based on projected population growth. The method was applied to the state of North Dakota and is transferable to any state, especially those with a large number of rural demand-response transit agencies that are not located within metropolitan planning areas. Currently, data in the National Transit Database are insufficient for analyzing the level of service for rural transit agencies because the database lacks information on geographic service area and span of service. A survey conducted for this study filled this data need by collecting detailed information regarding each agency’s service area and the number of days and hours of service being provided. These data combined with population and demographic data are useful for identifying gaps in transit service and prioritizing needed service improvements. The study also calculated per capita trips, vehicle miles, and vehicle hours provided in regions across the state. These performance measures were compared with benchmark values to identify areas in which the transit system may not be meeting the needs of the service area population, with the understanding that needs are not identical in all areas. The study estimated necessary increases in service and funding to meet target levels in different scenarios. Population projections were also considered for estimating needed increases in service and funding.