Abstract
The water distribution subsystem is the most failing subsystem included in the water supply system. One of the main consequences of water supply failures is the lack of water supply to consumers, which is always very onerous. The paper presents a method of determining the conditional probability that a break in the supply of water to consumers of a certain duration will be caused by a specific type of failure. The result of the work was to identify water supply network failures that result in the longest water supply suspension time. The method was presented on a real water supply system. In order to reduce the incidence of long-term interruptions in water supply, water supply companies should mainly continue replacing gray cast iron pipes with thermoplastic materials. Actions taken to increase the safety of drinking water supply meet the current standards for the safety of drinking water, developed by the World Health Organization and the European Union.
Highlights
In order to assess the reliability of the water supply network, the occurring failures should be associated with parameters describing the functioning of the system, such as the type of pipe material, pressure, or corrosion [27]
The analysis focused on the key parameter from the consumer point of view, i.e., the time of lack of water supply
The proposed method of determining the probability of lack of water supply to consumers in relation to the type of water supply network failure using Bayes’ theorem should be used in the analysis of network operational safety. It makes it possible to determine the cause-and-effect relationship between a given type of failure and a key parameter from the consumer point of view, i.e., the time of lack of water supply
Summary
The Current Standards for the Safety of Drinking Water. Its improper functioning may pose a threat to human health or life [4]. It must be characterized by a high level of reliability and security. The need to constantly improve the level of safety of water consumers was recognized by the World Health Organization (WHO) as early as in the 1950s. The fourth edition of the Guidelines for Drinking Water Quality, from 2011, is currently in force [5]. One of the achievements of the Guidelines [5] is the introduction of the concept and assumptions for Water Safety
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