Method and Analysis of Medium and Long Term Satellite Orbit Prediction Based on Satellite Broadcast Ephemeris Parameters

Abstract

Given the lag of IGS precise ephemeris and complexity of dynamic models, in order to solve the problem of long-term satellite orbit prediction in autonomous orbit determination, a new medium and long term orbit prediction method that based on satellite broadcast ephemeris parameters has been put forward. This method is that forecasting the orbit parameters firstly according to broadcast ephemeris history data, and then calculating satellite position according to the forecast ephemeris parameters. In order to verify the feasibility of this method, using 40 days of broadcast ephemeris data, adopting ARMA model combined with sliding window model to predict broadcast ephemeris orbit parameters value in 25 days. Analyzed the parameters prediction error and the influence of parameters prediction error to satellite orbit accuracy, 25 days of orbit prediction error can be controlled in 150 meters. The results show that the predictability of orbit parameters has certain application value for satellite orbit prediction, the medium and long term orbit prediction that based on the satellite broadcast ephemeris parameters is a new and feasible method of orbit prediction.