Abstract
We present a global 0.1° × 0.1° high-resolution inverse model, NIES-TM-FLEXPART-VAR (NTFVAR), and a methane emission evaluation using the Greenhouse Gas Observing Satellite (GOSAT) satellite and ground-based observations from 2010–2012. Prior fluxes contained two variants of anthropogenic emissions, Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) v4.3.2 and adjusted EDGAR v4.3.2 which were scaled to match the country totals by national reports to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), augmented by biomass burning emissions from Global Fire Assimilation System (GFASv1.2) and wetlands Vegetation Integrative Simulator for Trace Gases (VISIT). The ratio of the UNFCCC-adjusted global anthropogenic emissions to EDGAR is 98%. This varies by region: 200% in Russia, 84% in China, and 62% in India. By changing prior emissions from EDGAR to UNFCCC-adjusted values, the optimized total emissions increased from 36.2 to 46 Tg CH4 yr−1 for Russia, 12.8 to 14.3 Tg CH4 yr−1 for temperate South America, and 43.2 to 44.9 Tg CH4 yr−1 for contiguous USA, and the values decrease from 54 to 51.3 Tg CH4 yr−1 for China, 26.2 to 25.5 Tg CH4 yr−1 for Europe, and by 12.4 Tg CH4 yr−1 for India. The use of the national report to scale EDGAR emissions allows more detailed statistical data and country-specific emission factors to be gathered in place compared to those available for EDGAR inventory. This serves policy needs by evaluating the national or regional emission totals reported to the UNFCCC.
Highlights
The average global atmospheric methane concentration had reached 1867 ppb by the end of the year 2018 and is rising faster than at any time in the past two decades, while the carbon dioxide (CO2) increase is slowing down [1,2,3]
The national reports submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) by different countries might use different methods to estimate emissions, which could be different from global inventory datasets produced by the scientific community, such as the Global Carbon Project (GCP) [16], and the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) [17,18,19]
This paper presents the estimation of global and regional methane emissions using the NTFVAR inverse modeling system with two sets of emission inventories that differ in anthropogenic emissions—one with anthropogenic emissions from EDGAR v4.3.2 and the other with anthropogenic emissions from EDGAR v4.3.2 scaled to UNFCCC national reports [35]
Summary
The average global atmospheric methane concentration had reached 1867 ppb by the end of the year 2018 and is rising faster than at any time in the past two decades, while the carbon dioxide (CO2) increase is slowing down [1,2,3]. The national reports submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) by different countries might use different methods to estimate emissions, which could be different from global inventory datasets produced by the scientific community, such as the Global Carbon Project (GCP) [16], and the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) [17,18,19]. Complementary to these bottom-up emission estimations, top-down estimations by inverse models combined with atmospheric measurements have been widely used and have proven worthy for emission inventory evaluation (e.g., [20,21,22,23,24,25,26]). This paper presents the estimation of global and regional methane emissions using the NTFVAR inverse modeling system with two sets of emission inventories that differ in anthropogenic emissions—one with anthropogenic emissions from EDGAR v4.3.2 and the other with anthropogenic emissions from EDGAR v4.3.2 scaled to UNFCCC national reports [35]
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