Methane Concentration Forecasting Based on Sentinel-5P Products and Recurrent Neural Networks

Abstract

The increase in the concentration of geological gas emissions in the atmosphere and particularly the increase of methane is considered by the majority of the scientific community as the main cause of global climate change. The main reasons that place methane at the center of interest, lie in its high global warming potential (GWP) and its lifetime in the atmosphere. Anthropogenic processes, like engineering geology ones, highly affect the daily profile of gasses in the atmosphere. Should direct measures be taken to reduce emissions of methane, immediate global warming mitigation could be achieved. Due to its significance, methane has been monitored by many space missions over the years and as of 2017 by the Sentinel-5P mission. Considering the above, we conclude that monitoring and predicting future methane concentration based on past data is of vital importance for the course of climate change over the next decades. To that end, we introduce a method exploiting state-of-the-art recurrent neural networks (RNNs), which have been proven particularly effective in regression problems, such as time-series forecasting. Aligned with the green artificial intelligence (AI) initiative, the paper at hand investigates the ability of different RNN architectures to predict future methane concentration in the most active regions of Texas, Pennsylvania and West Virginia, by using Sentinel-5P methane data and focusing on computational and complexity efficiency. We conduct several empirical studies and utilize the obtained results to conclude the most effective architecture for the specific use case, establishing a competitive prediction performance that reaches up to a 0.7578 mean squared error on the evaluation set. Yet, taking into consideration the overall efficiency of the investigated models, we conclude that the exploitation of RNN architectures with less number of layers and a restricted number of units, i.e., one recurrent layer with 8 neurons, is able to better compensate for competitive prediction performance, meanwhile sustaining lower computational complexity and execution time. Finally, we compare RNN models against deep neural networks along with the well-established support vector regression, clearly highlighting the supremacy of the recurrent ones, as well as discuss future extensions of the introduced work.