Meteorological Predictions Preserved in the Panchangam Versus Real-time Observations - a Case Study over Tirupati Region - a Semi-arid Tropical Site in India

Abstract

Panchangam is the traditional Hindu Almanac that has been in practice for 5,000 years. Invaluable meteorological predictions are enshrined in it. They are generalized over a region, based on astrological phenomena like planet-star conjunctions, transits, etc. Five components of Panchangam , namely Tithi , Vaaram , Nakshatram , Yogam and Karanam , along with other terms, have been explained. Astrological conditions favouring scanty and copious rainfall have been enlisted. General climatic summary of Panchangam months during the period of study (1992-2004) has been furnished. Panchangam year starts from Chaitram (April) and ends with Phaalgunam (March). Popular ' Pidaparthi Panchangam ' was used for this study. To estimate rainfall quantity, an ancient unit ' Aadhakam ' was employed, which is equivalent to 1.6 cm of rain gauge. Maximum rainfall on any day of the year, mean annual rainfall, average South-West and North-East monsoon rainfall, mean monsoonal rainfall, rainfall based on planetary reign, dominant cloud type and resultant rainfall nature, direction of cloud origin and wind velocity over Tirupati region, which is a semi-arid tropical site situated in the state of Andhra Pradesh in India, were compared with Panchangam predictions, using data provided by India Meteorological Department (IMD). Correlation of individual observations with Panchangam predictions, ranged from 9.7% to 94.4%. Overall, during study period, success rate of Panchangam predictions set against modern observations was about 57%.