Meteorological modeling of urban “heat islands” on the territory of Belarus under modern global warming

Abstract

The article presents a quantitative estimation of intensity of urban “heat islands” in Belarus and their changes as a result of global warming. The potential opportunities for improving the urban microclimate by increasing the area of forest park zones in the city have been evaluated using mesoscale numerical simulation of meteorological conditions in cities. It is shown that in summer, Belarusian regional centers are warmer than suburban areas within 2–3 °С during the day and within 1.2–2.3 °С at night. Over the period that has passed since the beginning of this century, the regional cities have warmed by an average of 1.1–2.2 °C during the day and 1.3–1.9 °C at night. The maximum increase in daytime and nighttime temperatures in Belarusian cities has amounted within 3.1–6.0 and 2.4–4.4 °С, respectively. It is shown that replacing industrial clusters with forest park zones decreases the air temperature in the city within 2 °C and more than 2 times in evapotranspiration in the city of Homel. In the daytime, the northwest wind increases in the city and its suburb and this improves urban ventilation. At night, the afforestation of the city makes the surface layer of the atmosphere less stable, which is accompanied by the activation of local circulation cells, through which the temperature and specific humidity in the city and the suburb are smoothed.