Meteorological influences on daily variation and trend of summertime surface ozone over years of 2015–2020: Quantification for cities in the Yangtze River Delta

Abstract

We quantify the meteorological influences on daily variations and trends of maximum daily 8-h average ozone (MDA8 O3) concentrations by using multiple linear regression (MLR) and Lindeman, Merenda, and Gold (LMG) approaches. Different from previous region-based studies, we pay special attention to meteorological influences at city scale. Over 2015–2019, daily changes in key meteorological parameters could explain 47%–74% of the observed daily variations in summertime MDA8 O3 concentrations in Yangtze River Delta (YRD) and four cities (Shanghai, Nanjing, Hangzhou, and Hefei), with RH being the top driver. Over years of 2015–2020, daily concentrations of MDA8 O3 obtained from MLR equations (MDA8O3_MLR) of the local cities always had better performance than those of YRD. Compared with the observed daily MDA8 O3 in June–July–August (JJA) over the studied period, daily MDA8O3_MLR of the local cities (of YRD) had correlation coefficients of 0.73 (0.63), 0.75 (0.74), 0.79 (0.78), and 0.76 (0.73) in Shanghai, Nanjing, Hangzhou, and Hefei, respectively, and the MDA8O3_MLR of the local cities (of YRD) captured 54% (17%), 63% (51%), 52% (27%) of the observed O3-polluted days (days with MDA8 O3 concentration exceeding 160 μg m−3) in Shanghai, Nanjing, and Hangzhou, respectively. The meteorologically driven trends (Trend_Met) in MDA8 O3 were calculated using the established MLR equations. Over 2015–2019, the observed trends (Trend_Obs) and Trend_Met in MDA8 O3 were mostly positive in YRD, Nanjing, Hangzhou, and Hefei. In Shanghai, Trend_Obs, Trend_Met, and anthropogenically driven trend (estimated as Trend_Obs minus Trend_Met) of MDA8 O3 in JJA over 2015–2019 were −1.3, +1.0, and −2.3 μg m−3 y−1, respectively, indicating that the emission control measures alleviated O3 pollution in this city. Our results suggest that it is necessary to establish MLR equations at city scale to account for the role of meteorology in the actions of O3 pollution control.