Abstract
Drought is a natural disaster that significantly affects environmental and socio-economic conditions. It occurs when there is a period of below average precipitation in a region, and it results in water supply shortages affecting various sectors and life adversely. Droughts impact the ecosystems, crop production, and erode livelihoods. Monitoring drought is essential especially in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) due to the scarcity of rainfall for an extended period of time. In this study, drought is assessed in Sharjah UAE using monthly precipitation and average temperature data recorded for 35 years (1981-2015) at the Sharjah International Airport. The standardized precipitation Index (SPI), and the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) are selected to predict future droughts in the region. SPI and RDI are fitted to the statistical distribution functions (gamma and lognormal) in an annual time scale and then, a trend analysis of index values is carried out using Mann-Kendal test. The correlation between SPI and RDI indices was found to be high where both showed high drought frequencies and a tendency to get drier over time, thus indicating the need of appropriate drought management and monitoring.
Highlights
Drought is a complex natural phenomenon that results in serious economic, environmental, and social impacts
This study consists of five main steps including (1) Calculation of standardized precipitation Index (SPI), Aridity Index (AI), and Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI). (2) Drought occurrence evaluation
In near future period (2030 to 2064), the highest index value was observed in year 2046 (RDI is 2.18, whereas SPI is 2.11), and the lowest index value was detected in 2034 (RDI is -1.59 and SPI is -1.74)
Summary
Drought is a complex natural phenomenon that results in serious economic, environmental, and social impacts. The effects of drought accumulate slowly, and its impacts spread over a larger geographical area than other natural hazards [1]. Droughts results in prolonged water supply shortages adversely impacting ecosystems, agriculture, and residents in a region. Annual global economic loss caused by drought is around 6-8 billion US dollars [2]. In addition to climatic factors, human activities such as deforestation, construction, and agriculture negatively impact the water cycle and cause droughts. Other causes such as soil moisture depletion and increases in surface temperatures are likely to result in more severe droughts [3]. Global warming has emerged as another major driver
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