Abstract
Abstract. Internationally, severe wildfires are an escalating problem likely to worsen given projected changes to climate. Hazard reduction burns (HRBs) are used to suppress wildfire occurrences, but they generate considerable emissions of atmospheric fine particulate matter, which depend upon prevailing atmospheric conditions, and can degrade air quality. Our objectives are to improve understanding of the relationships between meteorological conditions and air quality during HRBs in Sydney, Australia. We identify the primary meteorological covariates linked to high PM2.5 pollution (particulates < 2.5 µm in diameter) and quantify differences in their behaviours between HRB days when PM2.5 remained low versus HRB days when PM2.5 was high. Generalised additive mixed models were applied to continuous meteorological and PM2.5 observations for 2011–2016 at four sites across Sydney. The results show that planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) and total cloud cover were the most consistent predictors of elevated PM2.5 during HRBs. During HRB days with low pollution, the PBLH between 00:00 and 07:00 LT (local time) was 100–200 m higher than days with high pollution. The PBLH was similar during 10:00–17:00 LT for both low and high pollution days, but higher after 18:00 LT for HRB days with low pollution. Cloud cover, temperature and wind speed reflected the above pattern, e.g. mean temperatures and wind speeds were 2 ∘C cooler and 0.5 m s−1 lower during mornings and evenings of HRB days when air quality was poor. These cooler, more stable morning and evening conditions coincide with nocturnal westerly cold air drainage flows in Sydney, which are associated with reduced mixing height and vertical dispersion, leading to the build-up of PM2.5. These findings indicate that air pollution impacts may be reduced by altering the timing of HRBs by conducting them later in the morning (by a matter of hours). Our findings support location-specific forecasts of the air quality impacts of HRBs in Sydney and similar regions elsewhere.
Highlights
Many regions experience regular wildfires with the potential to damage property, human health and natural resources (Attiwill and Adams, 2013)
Fine particulate concentrations are increasing in Sydney, and given projected increases in fire danger weather, intensification in fire activity is expected to further amplify fire-related PM2.5 emissions
We identified the key meteorological factors linked to elevated PM2.5 during hazard reduction burns (HRBs)
Summary
Many regions experience regular wildfires with the potential to damage property, human health and natural resources (Attiwill and Adams, 2013). The frequency and duration of wildfires are predicted to increase by the end of the century Wildfire frequency and duration have increased in western North America since the 1980s (Westerling, 2016). Their frequencies have increased in south-eastern Australia over the last decade (Dutta et al, 2016), with a predicted 5–25 % increase in fire risk by 2050 relative to 1974– 2003 (Hennessy et al, 2005), a risk compounded by climate change (Luo et al, 2013). In an effort to mitigate the escalating wildfire risk, fire agencies in Australia, as is the case internationally, conduct planned hazard reduction burns (HRBs; known as prescribed or controlled burns). HRBs reduce the vegetative fuel load in a controlled manner and aim to lower the severity or occurrence of wildfires (Fernandes and Botelho, 2003)
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