Meteorological barriers to bike rental demands: A case of Washington D.C. using NCA approach

Abstract

The article studies meteorological barriers to the use of public bicycle systems. The meteorological conditions have always been considered important in influencing bike-usage. Weather changes may lead to shifts in the preferred mode of travel. Studies mostly focus on the average effects and overlook their role in creating barriers. However, each meteorological factor (temperature, humidity, wind speed, precipitation, etc.) can individually disrupt the usage, irrespective of other factors' level. We conduct the necessary condition analysis for climate and weather-related factors, using hourly bicycle usage data for two years at Capital Bikeshare, Washington, D.C., to find barriers to public bicycle system usage. The analysis is performed separately on regular and casual users revealing interesting results. We find that season is not an effective barrier to bike usage. Only an extreme weather condition cause bottleneck. The elements of weather affect the usage of bikes by affecting the comfort and risk associated with riding. Lower temperature creates constraints for all users, whereas only regular bikers are constrained by low humidity. The differences in the necessary condition of regular and casual riders reveal the contrast in the perception of the two groups' comfortable riding conditions, making it essential to design the system accordingly. The results will help plan public bike systems in other cities and help in demand management at established locations. The demand projections are to be recalibrated using the bottlenecks that set in at different levels of temperature, humidity, and windspeeds. The results help in considerations about starting year-round rental services at other locations.