Abstract
Infectious diarrhea in China showed a significant pattern. Many researchers have tried to reveal the drivers, yet usually only meteorological factors were taken into consideration. Furthermore, the diarrheal data they analyzed were incomplete and the algorithms they exploited were inefficient of adapting realistic relationships. Here, we investigate the impacts of meteorological and social factors on the number of infectious diarrhea cases in China. A machine learning algorithm called the Random Forest is utilized. Our results demonstrate that nearly half of infectious diarrhea occurred among children under 5 years old. Generally speaking, increasing temperature or relative humidity leads to increased cases of infectious diarrhea in China. Nevertheless, people from different age groups or different regions own different sensitivities to meteorological factors. The weight of feces that are harmfully treated could be a possible reason for infectious diarrhea of the elderly as well as children under 5 years old. These findings indicate that infectious diarrhea prevention for children under 5 years old remains a primary task in China. Personalized prevention countermeasures ought to be provided to different age groups and different regions. It is essential to bring the weight of feces that are harmfully treated to the forefront when considering infectious diarrhea prevention.
Highlights
Infectious diarrhea in China showed a significant pattern
This group accounts for almost half of infectious diarrhea cases, and is much more sensitive to pernicious exposure
We take different age groups and provinces into consideration to illustrate the change of diarrheal morbidity over time
Summary
Infectious diarrhea in China showed a significant pattern. Many researchers have tried to reveal the drivers, yet usually only meteorological factors were taken into consideration. We investigate the impacts of meteorological and social factors on the number of infectious diarrhea cases in China. Speaking, increasing temperature or relative humidity leads to increased cases of infectious diarrhea in China. Various studies done in different parts of the world suggest that increasing temperature or relative humidity leads to increasing infectious diarrhea cases[15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24], only with a few exceptions[25,26]. Local forest coverage may mitigate the effects of extreme heat on cholera outbreaks in B angladesh[24]
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