Metastatic Gastroesophageal Adenocarcinoma Patients Treated with Systemic Therapy Followed by Consolidative Local Therapy: A Nomogram Associated with Long-Term Survivors

Abstract

Objective: Patients with metastatic gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma (MGEAC) have a poor but heterogeneous clinical course. Some patients have an unusually favorable outcome. We sought to identify clinical variables associated with more favorable outcomes. Methods: Of 246 patients with MGEAC, we identified 64 who received systemic therapy and eventually received local consolidation therapy. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression models were used, and a nomogram was developed. Results: Of these 64 patients, 61% had received consolidation chemoradiation (CRT) with doses of 50-55 Gy and 78% did not undergo surgery. The median follow-up time of survivors was 3.9 years, and the median overall survival (OS) from CRT start was 1.5 years (95% CI, 1.2-2.2). Surgery (as local consolidation) was an independent prognosticator for longer OS in the multivariate analysis (p = 0.02). The 5-year OS rate was 25% (SE = 6%). The contributors to the nomogram were longer duration of systemic therapy before CRT and the type of local therapy. Conclusions: Our data suggest that a subset of patients with MGEAC have an excellent prognosis (OS >5 years). However, these patients need to be identified during their clinical course so that local consolidation (CRT, surgery, or both) may be offered.