Metapopulation models using landscape connectivity can better reflect landscape heterogeneity

Abstract

Forest fragmentation due to urban development has a significant impact on species persistence, necessitating a metapopulation theory approach considering landscape structure and patch-based impact assessments. In this study, we propose a method that applies landscape connectivity and incidence function models (IFM) to a species distribution model to represent the persistence of metapopulations by considering landscape structure (IFM-LCONS). The proposed approach was used to understand changes in leopard cat (Prionailurus bengalensis) occupancy patterns resulting from urban development considering landscape and patch structure. The impact on changes in occupancy owing to urban development was better reflected by patch area (R2 = 0.5031, R2 = 0.1642) and quality (R2 = 0.5142, R2 = 0.1042). Notably, the IFM-LCONS showed an increasing occupancy at a connectivity value of 500, whereas the IFM indicated the opposite. These results highlight that the here proposed approach allows for a more thorough consideration of the impact of urban development on landscape and structural aspects with respect to endangered and rare species, which can be used for conservation planning.