Metaparametric Neural Networks for Survival Analysis.

Abstract

Survival analysis is a critical tool for the modeling of time-to-event data, such as life expectancy after a cancer diagnosis or optimal maintenance scheduling for complex machinery. However, current neural network models provide an imperfect solution for survival analysis as they either restrict the shape of the target probability distribution or restrict the estimation to predetermined times. As a consequence, current survival neural networks lack the ability to estimate a generic function without prior knowledge of its structure. In this article, we present the metaparametric neural network framework that encompasses the existing survival analysis methods and enables their extension to solve the aforementioned issues. This framework allows survival neural networks to satisfy the same independence of generic function estimation from the underlying data structure that characterizes their regression and classification counterparts. Furthermore, we demonstrate the application of the metaparametric framework using both simulated and large real-world datasets and show that it outperforms the current state-of-the-art methods in: 1) capturing nonlinearities and 2) identifying temporal patterns, leading to more accurate overall estimations while placing no restrictions on the underlying function structure.