Metamodeling-based reliability analysis framework for activated sludge processes

Abstract

The reliability of activated sludge processes will be adversely affected by alterations in wastewater production and pollutant loading foreseen due to population growth, urbanization, and climate change, as well as the tendency to amend environmental regulations to mandate stricter effluent quality standards to alleviate water pollution. Until now, there was no framework capable of effectively managing these multifaceted challenges in reliability analysis. Previous attempts conducted a low number of simulations leading to insufficient statistical significance to properly validate reliability quantification. A metamodeling-based reliability analysis framework for the activated sludge process is introduced to cope with alterations in wastewater production and pollutant loading, assesses the reliability under different effluent regulations, and leverages metamodels to conduct extensive simulation work, to estimate the reliability. All metamodels produced high-resolution results, enabling reliability estimation after 100 000 simulations. The framework effectively assessed the annual failure rates of various activated sludge facility designs under four regulations, demonstrating the impact of stricter effluent quality standards. Integrating metamodels for reliability analysis greatly lowers computational costs, making the framework a time and resource-efficient choice for quick decision-making in facility design.