Metals for energy & digital transition in Spain: Demand, recycling and sufficiency alternatives

Abstract

This study employs Material Flow Analysis (MFA) to comprehensively forecast metal demand in alignment with energy and digital transition policies at the country level, focusing on Spain. Our analysis spans eight technologies and ten metal groups, projecting metal demand and end-of-life recycling by 2050. We apply ambitious collection and recycling rate objectives, providing estimates of primary extraction requirements. We define and evaluate six scenarios targeting circular economy and sufficiency alternatives aimed at reducing primary extraction. Our results highlight electric mobility as the predominant driver of future metal demand, accounting for 54–92 % of cumulative demand for aluminum, copper, manganese, cobalt, nickel, lithium, dysprosium, and neodymium. From a global justice perspective, the 'equitable fraction of global reserves' for lithium and cobalt is surpassed. Ambitious recycling efforts could potentially cover 23–68 % of the cumulative metal demand between 2020 and 2050, while implementing circular economy and sufficiency alternatives might reduce primary extraction requirements by 11–61 %.