Meta-analyses of Schistosoma japonicum infections in wild rodents across China over time indicates a potential challenge to the 2030 elimination targets

Abstract

China once suffered greatly from schistosomiasis japonica, a major zoonotic disease. Nearly 70 years of multidisciplinary efforts have achieved great progress in disease control, with infections in both humans and bovines significantly reduced to very low levels. However, reaching for the target of complete interruption of transmission at the country level by 2030 still faces great challenges, with areas of ongoing endemicity and/or re-emergence within previously ‘eliminated’ regions. The objectives of this study were, by using meta-analytical methods, to estimate the overall prevalence of Schistosoma japonicum infections in abundant commensal rodent species in mainland China after the introduction of praziquantel for schistosomiasis treatment in humans and bovines in 1980s. In doing so we thereby aimed to further assess the role of wild rodents as potential reservoirs in ongoing schistosome transmission. Published studies on infection prevalence of S. japonicum in wild rodents in mainland China since 1980 were searched across five electronic bibliographic databases and lists of article references. Eligible studies were selected based on inclusion and exclusion criteria. Risks of within and across study biases, and the variations in prevalence estimates attributable to heterogeneities were assessed. The pooled infection prevalence and its 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated with the Freeman-Tukey double arcsine transformation. We identified a total of 37 relevant articles involving 61 field studies which contained eligible data on 8,795 wild rodents across mainland China. The overall pooled infection prevalence was 3.86% (95% CI: 2.16–5.93%). No significant change in the overall pooled prevalence was observed between 1980–2003 (n = 23 studies) and 2004-current (n = 38 studies). However, whilst the estimated prevalence decreased over time in the marshland and lake regions, there was an apparent increase in prevalence within hilly and mountainous regions. Among seven provinces, a significant prevalence reduction was only seen in Jiangsu where most endemic settings are classified as the marshland and lakes. These estimates changed over season, ranging from 0.58% in spring to 22.39% in winter, in association with increases in rodent density. This study systematically analyzed S. japonicum infections in wild rodents from the published literature over the last forty years after the introduction of praziquantel for schistosomiasis treatment in humans and bovines in 1980s. Although numbers of schistosomiasis cases in humans and bovines have been greatly reduced, no such comparable overall change of infection prevalence in rodents was detected. Furthermore, there appeared to be an increase in S. japonicum prevalence in rodents over time within hilly and mountainous regions. Rodents have been projected to become the dominant wildlife in human-driven environments and the main reservoir of zoonotic diseases in general within tropical zones. Our findings thus suggest that it is now necessary to include monitoring and evaluation of potential schistosome infection within rodents, particularly in hilly and mountainous regions, if we are ever to reach the new 2030 elimination goals and to maximize the impact of future public, and indeed One Health, interventions across, regional, national and international scales.