Meta-analysis reveals weak but pervasive plasticity in insect thermal limits

Abstract

Extreme temperature events are increasing in frequency and intensity due to climate change. Such events threaten insects, including pollinators, pests and disease vectors. Insect critical thermal limits can be enhanced through acclimation, yet evidence that plasticity aids survival at extreme temperatures is limited. Here, using meta-analyses across 1374 effect sizes, 74 studies and 102 species, we show that thermal limit plasticity is pervasive but generally weak: per 1 °C rise in acclimation temperature, critical thermal maximum increases by 0.09 °C; and per 1 °C decline, critical thermal minimum decreases by 0.15 °C. Moreover, small but significant publication bias suggests that the magnitude of plasticity is marginally overestimated. We find juvenile insects are more plastic than adults, highlighting that physiological responses of insects vary through ontogeny. Overall, we show critical thermal limit plasticity is likely of limited benefit to insects during extreme climatic events, yet we need more studies in under-represented taxa and geographic regions.