Meta-analysis of the demographic response of populations in different countries to the spread of COVID-19 coronavirus

Abstract

The 2020 coronavirus infection COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic continued with renewed strength in 2021-2022, and the seasonal wave dynamics of the spread of the disease in the regions of the world were pronounced. The issues of studying the demographic response of populations in different countries to infectious threats remain relevant. The study is based on the methodology of stratifying (fibering) the diversity (manifold) of relations of the population reaction characteristics according to conditions of the environment of implementation of these relations in different temporal and spatial circumstances. In meta-analysis procedures, systemic relationships are compared layer by layer (fibers) so that different systems are represented as one system, which is subject to general patterns abstracted from local conditions and territorial features. In the study, each situational layer is represented by an epidemiological curve described using a Frechet distribution function with individual coefficients. A meta-analytic layer-by-layer comparison of the curves is made by comparing the positions of the epidemic wave peaks and their amplitudes for each country. Despite the differences in socio-economic, climatic, political, and other conditions of the spread of the new coronavirus, general patterns were identified in heterogeneous situations and generalized estimates of the effect size were obtained, showing that populations in different countries generally respond in the same way according to the same law of self-regulation of the infection risk. The presented general scheme of implementing a meta-analysis of global spatiotemporal epidemiological data allows us to identify dependencies as invariant to territorial features of coronavirus spread.