Abstract

Heavy metal concentrations in Taihu Lake sediment from studies performed between 2000 and 2018 were analyzed and Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis of heavy metal geo-accumulation, potential ecological risk and toxicity data for Taihu Lake sediment was performed to allow heavy metal pollution of Taihu Lake sediment to be described clearly, objectively, and comprehensively. Five main conclusions were drawn. (1) Most attention should be paid to As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Ni, Pb, and Zn pollution. (2) The geo-accumulation indices showed that Cd is the most important pollutant and that the probabilities of Taihu Lake sediment being moderately polluted, moderately–heavily polluted, and heavily polluted were found to be 53.6%, 34.9%, and 18.7%, respectively. (3) Cd is the main contributor to potential ecological risks and had cumulative low risk, moderate risk, and considerable risk probabilities of 63.0%, 27.0%, and 10.0%, respectively. (4) Toxicity unit evaluation results indicated that Pb is the main contributor of toxicity in Taihu Lake sediment and had cumulative low toxicity, moderate toxicity, and high toxicity probabilities of 53.0%, 36.8%, and 5.6%, respectively. (5) Positive matrix factorization model results indicated that industrial sources are the main suppliers of heavy metals to Taihu Lake sediment, contributing 64.9% of the heavy metals. The summarized results and conclusions will improve local government awareness of heavy metal pollution in Taihu Lake and will aid in the development of appropriate pollution control measures. The results will also provide reference data for future studies of heavy metal pollution in sediment from Taihu Lake and other lakes.

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