Mesoscale simulation of typhoon-generated storm surge: methodology and Shanghai case study

Abstract

Abstract. The increasing vulnerability of coastal megacities to storm surge inundation means both infrastructure and populations are subject to significant threat. Planning for further urban development should include consideration of the changing circumstances in coastal cities to ensure a sustainable future. A sustainable urban plan relies on sound preparedness and prediction of future climate change and multiple natural hazards. In light of these needs for urban planning, this paper develops a general method to simulate typhoon-generated storm surge at the mesoscale (1–100 km in length). Mesoscale simulation provides a general approach with reasonable accuracy that could be implemented for planning purposes while having a relatively low computation resource requirement. The case study of Shanghai was chosen to implement this method. The mesoscale simulations of two historical typhoons not only provides realistic typhoon storm surge inundation results at the city level but is also suitable for implementing a large amount of simulations for future scenario studies. The method will be generally applicable to all coastal cities around the world to examine the effect of future climate change on typhoon-generated storm surge even when historical observation data are inadequate or not available.