Abstract
Abstract Analysis described in the paper were made in the frame of the PROZA (Operational decisionmaking based on atmospheric conditions, http://projekt-proza.pl/) project co-financed by the European Union through the European Regional Development Fund. One of its tasks was to develop an operational forecast system, which is going to support different economies branches like forestry or fruit farming by reducing the risk of economic decisions with taking into consideration weather conditions. The main purpose of the paper is to describe the method of the MCSs (Mesoscale Convective Systems) tracking on the basis of the MSG (Meteosat Second Generation) data. Until now several tests were performed. The Meteosat satellite images in selected spectral channels collected for Central Europe Region for May 2010 were used to detect and track cloud systems recognized as MCSs in Poland. The ISIS tracking method was applied here. First the cloud objects are defined using the temperature threshold and next the selected cells are tracked using principle of overlapping position on consecutive images. The main benefit of using a temperature threshold to define cells is its efficiency. During the tracking process the algorithm links the cells of the image at time t to the one of the following image at time t+dt that correspond to the same cloud system. Selected cases present phenomena, which appeared at the territory of Poland. They were compared to the weather radar data and UKMO UM (United Kingdom MetOffice Unified Model) forecasts. The paper presents analysis of exemplary MCSs in the context of near realtime prediction system development and proves that developed tool can be helpful in MCSs monitoring.
Highlights
Analysis described in the paper were made in the frame of the PROZA (Operational decisionmaking based on atmospheric conditions, http://projekt-proza.pl/) project co-financed by the European Union through the European Regional Development Fund
When comparing various source of data one have to remember that they have different nature: MSG images provide meteorological observation of cloudiness using different spectral channels, radar data present reflectivity, which is used to calculate total precipitation, which took place and NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) models shows forecasts of precipitation
Based on MSG infrared channel images areas possibly related to mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) were recognized and compared to the Unified Model (UM) forecasts and radar data
Summary
Analysis described in this paper were performed in the frame of PROZA (Operational decision-making based on atmospheric conditions, http://projekt-proza.pl/) project. The main goal of the analysis presented in this paper is to take full advantage of various source of data to track possibly dangerous meteorological phenomena Nowadays, this problem has a very significant, practical meaning, because of many damages caused by severe weather in Poland. This paper employs methodology developed by (Morel and Senesi, 2002a), who created and described MCS database using Meteosat infrared channel (IR10.8) images They studied five warm seasons from 1993 to 1997 over Europe, the western Mediterranean and north Africa. As they proved, Meteosat channel 9 (10.8 μm) is self-sufficient in the discrimination of MCSs, so the analysis presented here has been performed using this type of data
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