Abstract
It is found that the average genesis location of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the postmonsoon (October–December) Bay of Bengal (BoB) shows a notable meridional oscillation during 1980–2015. During years when the average genesis location shifts northward (north-years), the average maximum sustained wind speed, the average landfall wind speed and the number of category 4–5 TCs are all larger than those during years when the average genesis location displaces southward (south-years). Genesis potential index analysis shows that changes in relative humidity and vertical wind shear are mainly responsible for the meridional oscillation of the average genesis location of TCs. The changes in relative humidity and wind shear are closely related to changes in atmospheric circulation. Composite analysis reveals that sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the equatorial Pacific Ocean show a La Nina-like pattern (El Nino-like pattern) during north-years (south-years) of TC genesis locations. The SST anomalies over the equatorial Pacific Ocean induce a strengthened (weakened) Walker circulation during north-years (south-years) of TC genesis locations, influencing the atmospheric circulation over the tropical Indian Ocean. In addition, a stationary Rossby wave train from the North Pacific to the Iranian Plateau (east of Iranian Plateau) during north-years (south-years) induces changes in atmospheric circulation over the extratropical North Indian Ocean. Together, the tropical and extratropical influences contribute to the north–south patterns of relative humidity and vertical wind shear anomalies in the postmonsoon BoB, which drive the meridional oscillation of TC genesis locations. This study has significant implications for the prediction of TCs and disaster prevention and mitigation over the BoB.
Published Version
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