Merging trait-based ecology and regime shift theory to anticipate community responses to warming.

Abstract

Anthropogenic warming is altering species abundance, distribution, physiology, and more. How changes observed at the species level alter emergent community properties is an active and urgent area of research. Trait-based ecology and regime shift theory provide complementary ways to understand climate change impacts on communities, but these two bodies of work are only rarely integrated. Lack of integration handicaps our ability to understand community responses to warming, at a time when such understanding is critical. Therefore, we advocate for merging trait-based ecology with regime shift theory. We propose a general set of principles to guide this merger and apply these principles to research on marine communities in the rapidly warming North Atlantic. In our example, combining trait distribution and regime shift analyses at the community level yields greater insight than either alone. Looking forward, we identify a clear need for expanding quantitative approaches to collecting and merging trait-based and resilience metrics in order to advance our understanding of climate-driven community change.