Memory retrieval and subjective probability judgements in control and depressed participants

Abstract

Two studies examined the relationship between memory recall and subjective probability judgement in an attempt to understand the mechanisms involved in depressive future thinking. In study 1, the relationship between general impression memory (GIM) latencies and subjective probability, and the relationship between specific event memory (SEM) latencies and subjective probability, were examined in normal mood individuals. Results demonstrated that GIM latencies were correlated with subjective probability. That is, participants who were faster to say they had experienced events in the past also thought themselves more likely to experience similar events in the future. In contrast, SEMs were not significantly correlated with subjective probability judgements. Study 2 tested the prediction that the same mechanism is operative in depression, but in this instance it is differential accessibility of negative memories which biases judgements for future events. As predicted, depressed patients, relative to controls, recalled more negative events and rated negative events as more likely to happen to them in the future. However, subjective probability judgements were not associated with the recall of either GIMs or SEMs in depressed patients, but GIMs were correlated with subjective probability judgements in the control participants. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.