Abstract

Over the past century and a half ethnic and religious identities in Central Asia have undergone considerable change and modification. Under Tsarist, and then Soviet rule, the transition from one form of definition to another took place in a stable environment, within the framework of a larger polity. Regional hostilities and resentments could be held in check, and, if necessary, forcibly suppressed. Today, there is no superior power to intervene to resolve local conflicts. Meanwhile, economic pressures, exacerbated by high rates of demographic growth, are placing increasing strain on the resources of these new states. This in turn helps to foment social tensions. Nevertheless, with the exception of the war in Tadzhikistan, these first five years have been remarkably peaceful. Only time will tell, however, whether it will be possible to maintain this balance.

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