Melting ice, growing trade?

Sami Bensassi,Andrew P Barrett,Julienne C Stroeve,Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso,Jody W Deming,Eddy C Carmack

doi:10.12952/journal.elementa.000107

Abstract

Abstract Large reductions in Arctic sea ice, most notably in summer, coupled with growing interest in Arctic shipping and resource exploitation have renewed interest in the economic potential of the Northern Sea Route (NSR). Two key constraints on the future viability of the NSR pertain to bathymetry and the future evolution of the sea ice cover. Climate model projections of future sea ice conditions throughout the rest of the century suggest that even under the most “aggressive” emission scenario, increases in international trade between Europe and Asia will be very low. The large inter-annual variability of weather and sea ice conditions in the route, the Russian toll imposed for transiting the NSR, together with high insurance costs and scarce loading/unloading opportunities, limit the use of the NSR. We show that even if these obstacles are removed, the duration of the opening of the NSR over the course of the century is not long enough to offer a consequent boost to international trade at the macroeconomic level.

Highlights

Received: November 5, 2015 Accepted: April 9, 2016 Published: May 20, 2016An increasing body of scientific evidence (Lemke and Jacobi, 2012; Overland et al, 2014) details the extent of climate change in the Arctic region
Our first task was to define the route (Text S1, Table S1, and Figure S1) and determine how many months of the year the route will be open for shipping in the coming decades considering two future emission scenarios, denoted by representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5
Our focus was on the combined impact of climate change and distance reduction on trade; we have stated optimal conditions for the shipping industry.That is to say, when the route was considered navigable, the states bordering the route would be responsible for all the security-related expenses to keep the passage safe

Summary

Introduction

An increasing body of scientific evidence (Lemke and Jacobi, 2012; Overland et al, 2014) details the extent of climate change in the Arctic region. A large number of commercial vessels (e.g., oil tankers and gas carriers with a gross tonnage of at least 10,000) are allowed to navigate the NSR without ice strengthening, yet they can do so only in very good weather conditions and under the assistance of icebreakers (Ministry of Transport of Russia, 2013). This assistance has costs in terms of fees paid to the Russian state to maintain the icebreaker service, and in terms of navigation time, which is increased under escort. In this paper we expand the forecast beyond 2050 to the end of this century, and evaluate whether the trade would increase between countries that could benefit from shorter trade distances using the NSR

Discussion of approach and results

Methods

Findings

Funding information