MELDEQ : An alternative Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma.

Abstract

Multiple studies have demonstrated an advantage for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients under the current liver allocation system, such that the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) recently voted in support of a proposal to delay granting Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) exception points to all HCC patients for 6 months, independently of a candidate's native MELD score or alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) level. We obtained UNOS data on adult patients who were added to the wait list between January 22, 2005 and September 30, 2009, and we explored the relationship between HCC, MELD, AFP, and other factors that contribute to not only dropout on the wait list but posttransplant survival as well. The aim was to establish an equivalent Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELDEQ ) score for HCC patients that would reduce the disparity in access to transplantation between HCC and non-HCC patients. We determined risk groups for HCC patients with dropout hazards equivalent to those of non-HCC patients, and we evaluated projections for HCC wait-list dropout/transplantation probabilities on the basis of the MELDEQ prioritization scheme. Projections indicate that lower risk HCC patients (MELDEQ ≤ 18) would have dropout probabilities similar to those of non-HCC patients in the same MELD score range, whereas dropout probabilities for higher risk HCC patients would actually be improved. The posttransplant survival of all HCC risk groups is lower than that of their non-HCC counterparts, with 1-year survival of 0.77 (95% CI, 0.70-0.85) for MELDEQ scores ≥ 31. These results suggest that HCC patients with a combination of a low biochemical MELD score and a low AFP level (MELDEQ ≤ 15) would receive a marked advantage in comparison with patients with chemical MELD scores in a similar range and that a delay of 6 months for listing may be appropriate. In contrast, patients with MELDEQ scores > 15 would likely be adversely affected by a universal 6-month delay in listing.