Mehr als die Summe der einzelnen TeileKonsistente Szenarien des Wärmekonsums als Reflexionsrahmen für Politik und WissenschaftMore than the Sum of Its Parts. Consistent Scenarios for the Consumption of Heat Energy as a Common Reference Point for Policy and Science

Abstract

Multiple variables determine the consumption of heat energy: technical, organisational, economic, legal, and social. Since these drivers also interact with each other in various ways, they may have an ambiguous effect when evaluating sustainability. This paper gives a comprehensive picture of how future heat consump tion might develop. We seek to unveil opportunities, constraints and contradictions within the system of heat consumption. In order to identify, analyze and illustrate consistent pathways for future development, we apply the cross impact balance analysis – a qualitative method for analysing impact networks –, thereby focusing on the question how the process of transforming heat consumption in Germany towards a sustainable supply can be assisted. We discuss challenges with regard to the multi-facetted and interrelated variables, outline approaches for assessing policy options and political consulting (e.g., concerning the design of research funding programmes) as well as identify opportunities for the advancement of energy system analysis.