Mega transport projects—Beyond the ‘iron triangle’: Findings from the OMEGA research programme

Abstract

This monograph reports on selected findings from a five year international research programme of 30 case studies of decision-making in the planning, appraisal and delivery of mega transport projects (MTPs) in ten developed economies in Europe, USA, and Asia Pacific.11This research was funded by the Volvo Research and Education Foundations (VREF) between 2006 and 2011. Undertaken with a view to contributing towards a broader and better understanding of what constitutes a ‘successful’ mega transport project (MTP) in an increasingly uncertain and globalised world, the investigation reports on ‘agent of change’ functions of such projects, and examines these against the more limited project performance criteria usually employed to judge their success – generally restricted to finishing schemes on-time, within budget and to specification (often referred to as ‘the iron triangle’22The ‘iron triangle’ was a term coined in 1969 by Martin Barnes, former Executive Director of the Major Projects Association (MPA), to demonstrate the relationship between time, cost and project specification adherence in assessing the ‘success’ of projects upon completion (Weaver, 2007).). The main focus of the findings is on the proclaimed, emergent and actual roles of MTPs and the provision of insights into how these evolved, materialised and ultimately were judged by different project stakeholders and commentators. The analysis exposes widespread differences of understanding as to what are the project boundaries of such investments, a fundamental misunderstanding of their changing objectives over time, a common failure to align short and long-term expectations, significant limitations of conventional formal megaproject planning and appraisal practices, and the need for the employment of more holistic approaches to decision making in all stages of the project lifecycle. The authors of the paper conclude that a ‘successful’ MTP is dependent on how well risks, uncertainties and complexities in decision-making are addressed, and how context-sensitive its decision-making is throughout the project lifecycle. To undertake the development of a successful megaproject, it is also contended that there is a need for a dramatic change of mind-set concerning the way in which such megaprojects are positioned, framed, planned and ultimately judged – and that policy-led multi-criteria analysis (PLMCA) frameworks potentially offer a more effective basis for judging the ‘success’ of such investments.