Meeting Sri Lanka's future electricity needs

Abstract

This paper traces the history of the electricity power sector in Sri Lanka from the introduction of electricity to the country by a private company called Baustead Brothers Ltd. in 1895 during the colonial period to date. The historical development provides an introduction to the present generating system of the country and serves also to highlight the principles of methodical development of power generation in the country. The main state sector agency in electricity generation and distribution is the Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB). The CEB is also entrusted with generation planning and it is empowered to make its decisions on the basis of least cost to the national economy. The country faced its most severe power crisis in 1996 and is facing another such crisis today. How CEB plans to meet the country's future electricity needs is thus discussed against this climate of power shortages and uncertainty. Providing all related information such as low growth in 1996 and economic scenarios that preceded these events the paper attempts to answer the key question, “Can we blame this on lack of planning and foresight on the part of CEB planners?” The CEB planning exercise is presented in detail and shows how the plans were developed in keeping in view the country's needs at various times. The generating options considered involve both conventional energy sources and renewables, and the selection is based on an analysis based in turn on the International Atomic Energy Agency's WASP 111 simulation model, the software of choice of CEB's generation planning division. It is shown that the Sri Lankan power system is in a state of transition from being predominantly hydro-based to predominantly coal-based within the first decade of this century. After giving details of why, how, and what, and outlining the capacity development plan after demand analysis, the paper concludes that the proof of the effectiveness of the plan will be in its implementation.