Meeting India's electricity demand in 2030

Abstract

Given the intricate nexus between energy and climate change, current policy thrust is laid on decoupling the two, so that targeted climate goals can be attained. In this context, the present study attempts to offer the optimal energy mix for the Indian electricity sector for 2030, by accounting for cost-minimizing constraints, as well as emission targets set by India's Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC). The analytical contours of the paper are divided into two major segments. In part one, emphasis is laid on estimating India's electricity demand for 2030 by employing regression methods of demand projection. Part two on the other hand carries out a cost optimization exercise based on linear programming methods incorporating the projected demand for 2030. The findings of the study are highly relevant from the policy making point of view of. The average cost of generation in 2030 was found to be INR 4.01 per kWh. In addition, it was also revealed that while following the proposed generation pattern, the country will be able to exceed its target of achieving forty percent generation capacity from non-fossil fuel sources.