Meeting conditional targets in nationally determined contributions of developing countries: Renewable energy targets and required investment of GGGI member and partner countries

Abstract

Under the Paris Agreement, countries submitted nationally determined contributions (NDCs) including their GHG emission reduction targets and mitigation measures. Around 175 Parties have mentioned in their NDCs to reduce energy sector emissions by increasing the share of renewable energy in the energy mix. Dissemination of renewable energy requires substantial investment and low and middle-income developing countries tend to present conditional targets assuming external support, therefore essential to estimate how much funding developing countries require and explore how they attract international investment to meet their renewable energy targets. This study examines contributions to carbon mitigation and necessary investment for expansion of renewable energy in Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI) member countries by analyzing their NDCs and national energy plans. It is estimated that the 27 GGGI member and partner countries analyzed in this study would conditionally reduce at least 5058 MtCO2eq of GHG by 2030 and increase the cumulative renewable energy generation capacity up to around 356,184 MW by 2030. To accomplish these pledges, an investment of at least US$258 billion will be required by 2030: US$98–260 billion for solar photovoltaics (PV); US$76–139 billion for wind energy; US$57–330 billion for hydropower; US$10–23 billion for bioenergy; and US$16–45 billion for geothermal.