Abstract
Gravity changes derived from regional gravity monitoring data in China from 1998 to 2005 exhibited noticeable variations before the occurrence of two large earthquakes in 2008 in China—the 2008 Yutian (Xinjiang)Ms=7.3earthquake and the 2008 Wenchuan (Sichuan)Ms=8.0earthquake. Based on these gravity variations, a group of researchers at the Second Crust Monitoring and Application Center of China Earthquake Administration made a suggestion in December of 2006 that the possibility for the Yutian (Xinjiang) and Wenchuan (Sichuan) areas to experience a large earthquake in either 2007 or 2008 was high. We review the gravity monitoring data and methods upon which the researchers reached these medium-term earthquake forecasts. Experience related to the medium-term forecasts of the Yutian and Wenchuan earthquakes suggests that gravity changes derived from regional gravity monitoring data could potentially be a useful medium-term precursor of large earthquakes, but significant additional research is needed to validate and evaluate this hypothesis.
Highlights
In December 2006, a group of researchers at the Second Crust Monitoring and Application Center of China Earthquake Administration suggested that the possibility for the areas surrounding Yutian (Xinjiang) and Wenchuan (Sichian) to experience a large earthquake in either 2007 or 2008 was high [1]
We first review ground gravity surveys conducted in China in 1998, 2000, 2002, and 2005 and report how the researchers used gravity monitoring data to make medium-term forecasts of the Yutian and Wenchuan earthquakes
We make a few observations about possible connections between gravity changes and the occurrence of a large earthquake and provide some discussions about future research directions in earthquake research using gravity monitoring data
Summary
In December 2006, a group of researchers at the Second Crust Monitoring and Application Center of China Earthquake Administration suggested that the possibility for the areas surrounding Yutian (Xinjiang) and Wenchuan (Sichian) to experience a large earthquake in either 2007 or 2008 was high [1]. These researchers used gravity changes derived from regional gravity monitoring data in China from 1998 to 2005 as the primary precursory information to make these suggestions. We first review ground gravity surveys conducted in China in 1998, 2000, 2002, and 2005 and report how the researchers used gravity monitoring data to make medium-term (less than three years) forecasts of the Yutian and Wenchuan earthquakes. We make a few observations about possible connections between gravity changes and the occurrence of a large earthquake and provide some discussions about future research directions in earthquake research using gravity monitoring data
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