Medium term projections and selected issues for meat markets.

Abstract

Introduction Over the last three decades, the world’s meat markets have undergone significant, some have even called them revolutionary, changes. Dynamic change and growth through technical advances and industry restructuring have characterized the meat industry. At the same time, consumer preference in developed countries for meat products is altering due to lifestyle changes, safety concerns, health perceptions, and other consumer concerns. Total meat consumption per capita in OECD countries, excluding Japan and Korea, amounted to 70 kg in 1970. Throughout the 1970s and into the first half of the 1980s, meat demand remained strong overall and per capita consumption continued to rise, growing by 13 kg from 1970 to reach 83 kg in 1985. As meat consumption levels increased, life styles changed and diets became more diversified, income elasticities of meat demand have declined in OECD countries. They now typically range from more than 1 in some Asian countries to less than 0.5 in many OECD countries. This implies that as income levels continued to rise, so did per capita meat consumption, all be it at a slower rate. Between 1985 and 2000, meat consumption per head in traditional meat consuming countries in the OECD rose by 7 kg, when compared to 13 kg in the previous 15 years. In total tonnage, the meat market in these countries grew from 50 million tons in 1970 to 68 million tons in 1985 and 85 million tons in 2000. These numbers belie the popular notion that OECD meat markets are saturated; they are highly competitive and often distorted, but in total tonnage terms, there has hardly been a slow down in the rate of growth over the last 30 years. Looking beyond the traditional meat consuming countries in the OECD, meat markets have grown significantly in those countries where diets were traditionally based on cereals for staple food