Medium-term forecasting of global horizontal solar radiation in Brazil using machine learning-based methods

Abstract

The generation of electric energy through renewable sources, such as solar photovoltaic (PV) systems, has emerged as one solution to the climate change crisis. To avoid fluctuations in energy generation on the electricity grid, reliable and accurate forecasts are required. Statistical downscaling methodologies often rely on data from General Circulation Model (GCM) to provide information on the local level. In contrast to traditional downscaling approaches, the present study focuses on a data-driven approach using the Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) database in three different ways to feed the machine learning (ML) models, based on boosting and bagging, to provide medium-term Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) forecasts, i.e. up to seven days ahead. In addition, feature selection and feature augmentation techniques are also applied. The results showed that Extra Trees method outperformed the other tested in the present study, with a RMSE of 99.6 and 137.6 W/m2, and correlation 0.31 and 0.52 for June and October, respectively. Thus far, this work marks the initial suggestion of incorporating GDAS analysis data into a data-driven forecasting approach employing bagging and boosting models. This innovative approach demonstrates the potential for integrating global-scale data assimilation systems with local measurements using ML techniques. The outcomes of this research contribute to advancing the field of traditional downscaling methods and provides more robust and specialized forecasting.