Medium and long-term prediction on power generation cost of renewable energy in China within the context of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality

Abstract

A revolutionary leap in the development of renewable energy has become a general trend and an important support for realizing the “dual carbon” (carbon peaking and carbon neutrality) goal. The medium- and long-term prediction of renewable energy power generation cost is not only the basis and key to price prediction but also a major challenge. Based on the technical characteristics and cost behaviors of wind and solar power generation, this paper considers the changes in incremental and stock installed structure and subsequently constructs a medium- and long-term prediction model of wind and solar power generation cost within the context of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. It further forecasts the power generation costs of wind and solar power generation from 2025 to 2060. The results can provide support for revealing the medium- and long-term trend of electricity price, guiding investment in renewable energy power generation, and promoting sound supporting policies.