Mediterranean Hurricanes and Associated Damage Estimates

Abstract

Mediterranean hurricanes, or “medicanes”, are powerful cyclonic disturbances that cause wind, flooding, and surge damages around the Mediterranean region. Recent advancements in the natural sciences have improved historical understanding of medicane characteristics. Yet a systematic analysis of the economic impacts of medicanes has not been carried out. In this paper, we analyze 62 years of newly re-analyzed historical medicane tracks to characterize landfalls across space and time. We match historical landfalls with local socioeconomic characteristics. Using a cyclone damages function, we estimate historical medicane losses. We find that Italy suffers the highest expected damages from medicanes at $33 million dollars annually. Scaling by location size, Mediterranean islands are most at risk. We also present findings on landfall characteristics and calculate the return rate for storm damages. These findings are important for policy, especially with regard to the costs and benefits of long run adaptation.