Medindo os custos de bem-estar dos ciclos econômicos na América Latina

Abstract

COUTO, G. T.Measuring the welfare costs of business cycles in Latin America 2016. Dissertation (Master Degree) Faculdade de Economia, Administracao e Contabilidade de Ribeirao Preto, Universidade de Sao Paulo, Ribeirao Preto, 2016. Since the work of Lucas (1987), several authors have dedicated to measure the welfare costs of business cycle. Although the literature on this subject is extensive for the United States, few studies were made considering developing countries data. The objective of this study is to estimate this cost for a sample of Latin American countries and compare it to the cost obtained from the US economy data. The methodology proposed by Reis (2009) is used. It assumes that consumption follows an ARIMA (p,1,q) model, and the p and q orders are selected based on the Bayesian information criterion. The results indicate that, in all processes assumed for the consumption series, Latin American countries have considerably higher welfare costs than the US. However, when the ARIMA structure is assumed, the difference between the costs of Latin American countries and the United States is the smallest.