Abstract
AbstractWestern medicine's paradigmatic search for 'magic bullet' interventions is facing increasing difficulty: Between 1950 and 2010 the inflation-adjusted cost per USFDA-approved drug has increased exponentially in time, a draconian inverse of the famous Moore's Law of computing. A sequence of empirically-oriented statistical models suggests that carefully designed synergistic multifactorial and multiscale strategies might evade this relationship.
Highlights
Western medicine’s relentless culturally-determined hunt for simple magic bullets against complex multifactorial chronic and infectious disease is coming to an end as biologically simple low-hanging fruit is picked off and as pathogens evolve out from under existing antibiotics
We will outline a kind of statistical theory of biological interaction that might significantly improve our understanding of human disease biology and contribute to altering the form of figure 1, a depressing inverse medical parallel to the
Complex multi-level regulatory behaviors, and their failures as affected by environmental interactions or internal dynamics, have been modeled in terms of a nested set of information sources that are constrained by the asymptotic limit theorems of information theory, and this may allow construction of regression- or Onsager- model-like statistical tools useful for scientific inference, focusing on the behaviors of the system rather than on a detailed description of its mechanical state under all circumstances and at all times
Summary
Western medicine’s relentless culturally-determined hunt for simple magic bullets against complex multifactorial chronic and infectious disease is coming to an end as biologically simple low-hanging fruit is picked off and as pathogens evolve out from under existing antibiotics. The cost per intervention has increased from about $ 200 million to over $ 1.2 billion, and many pharmaceutical firms have markedly cut their research efforts. [W]ithout a dramatic increase in [Research and Development] productivity, today’s pharmaceutical industry cannot sustain sufficient innovation to replace the loss of revenues due to patent expirations for successful products... A more complete understanding of human (disease) biology will... We will outline a kind of statistical theory of biological interaction that might significantly improve our understanding of human disease biology and contribute to altering the form of figure 1, a depressing inverse medical parallel to the. We begin with a review of a canonical formal approach to complicated biological and other dynamics
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