Media sentiment analysis for measuring perceived trust in government

Abstract

This study employs sentiment analysis of articles published in popular Lithuanian media outlets in an attempt to determine the citizens’ trust in the Lithuanian government at a given time. Based on the classical political theory by Thomas Hobbes and contemporary political theories of divisionary politics and the “rally ‘round the flag” effect, it is hypothesized that with an increased sense of insecurity, the population puts more trust into their government. The hypothesis is tested by examining the sentiment expressed in articles concerning governmental affairs published in Lithuanian media and the user-generated comments published on Facebook for the period of six months prior to and after March 2014 – Russia’s annexation of Crimea, an event that created a sense of fear among the Lithuanian public. The analysis of the gathered data found that the decrease in sentiment towards Russia correlated with an increase in the sentiment towards the government of Lithuania in conventional media. The analysis of Facebook comments suggested the same result, but overall was inconclusive.