Mechanisms of population dynamics in trans-Saharan migrant birds: A review

Abstract

Modern views on the mechanisms of population dynamics in Palearctic birds wintering in tropical Africa are discussed with regard to the distribution of migrants on the African continent and the influence of external factors on conditions of bird wintering. The data on long-term bird trapping at ten ornithological stations in Europe are analyzed. Among 142 long-term trends in the population dynamics of 18 bird species, 34% are negative, 11% are positive, and the remaining trends lack statistical significance. The proportion of negative trends in each species negatively correlates with the number of birds: the more abundant the species, the lower the probability of its long-term population decline. Population dynamics may largely be determined by environmental conditions in wintering regions. Population studies on ten Palearctic species showed that drastic population declines and even local extinction of birds in recent decades resulted from the dramatic decrease in their survival on African wintering grounds because of insufficient precipitation and, in particular, severe droughts in the Sahel.