Mechanisms Determining the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation Response to Greenhouse Gas Forcing in a Non-Flux-Adjusted Coupled Climate Model

Abstract

Abstract Models of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) show a range of responses to the high-latitude warming and freshening characteristic of global warming scenarios. Most simulate a weakening of the THC, with some suggesting possible interruption of the circulation, but others exhibit little change. The mechanisms of the THC response to climate change using the HadCM3 coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model, which gives a good simulation of the present-day THC and does not require flux adjustment, were studied. In a range of climate change simulations, the strength of the THC in HadCM3 is proportional to the meridional gradient of steric height (equivalent to column-integrated density) between 30°S and 60°N. During an integration in which CO2 increases at 2% per year for 70 yr, the THC weakens by about 20%, and it stabilizes at this level if the CO2 is subsequently held constant. Changes in surface heat and water fluxes are the cause of the reduction in the steric height gradie...