Mechanism and Impact of Digital Economy on Urban Economic Resilience under the Carbon Emission Scenarios: Evidence from China’s Urban Development

Abstract

China is currently experiencing a phase of high-quality development, and fostering the resilience of the urban economy is key to promoting this development. The growth of the digital economy is seen as critical to achieving this goal. Therefore, it is necessary to study the mechanism by which the digital economy affects urban economic resilience and the impact of carbon emissions. To this end, this paper empirically analyzes the mechanisms and impacts of the digital economy on urban economic resilience using panel data from 258 prefecture-level cities in China between 2004 and 2017. The study employs a two-way fixed effect model and a moderated mediation model. The results show that: (1) The development of the digital economy can significantly improve the resilience of the urban economy in different periods and different city sizes; (2) The development of the digital economy promotes the economic resilience of developed cities and eastern cities more significantly; (3) In the context of carbon emissions, the digital economy positively contributes to urban economic resilience through population quality and industrial structure but negatively contributes to urban economic resilience through above-scale enterprises; (4) Carbon emissions have a positive moderation effect on the historical path of the industrial structure, above-scale enterprises, and the front path of population quality in the mechanism of the role of the digital economy on the economic resilience of cities, and a negative moderation effect on the front path of above-scale enterprises. Based on these findings this paper proposes several suggestions, such as revolutionizing the digital development of cities, optimizing regional industrial collaboration, accelerating the training of digital talents, and preventing the disorderly expansion of capital.