Mechanism and early warning of coal mine rockburst accident based on SD-STAMP-DEMATEL

Abstract

As coal mines shift from shallow to deeper excavation, the number of mines facing the risk of rock burst disasters is gradually increasing. Rockburst, with their characteristics of vibration, suddenness, complexity, and unpredictability, make it increasingly difficult to prevent and control these disasters. Therefore, the challenges of preventing and controlling rock burst disasters are becoming more and more severe. This paper, based on the system-theoretic accident model and processes (STAMP) theory, extracts the causal factors affecting coal mine rock burst accidents. Using the interpretative structural modeling (ISM) and decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) method, the accident-causing factors are quantitatively assigned. By constructing model equations and drawing causal loop diagrams and stock-flow diagrams, the event is dynamically simulated and early warnings are issued. The results show that the control defects leading to the accident are analyzed from the perspectives of the government level, management level, grassroots level, physical layer, and the dynamic process of the accident. In the short term, safety investment in grassroots operations is the most effective control. In the long run, the most effective measure is for the management level to strengthen its supervisory work. By changing the input ratios of various variables, it can be seen that different variables in the system dynamics (SD) model have different impacts on coal mine rock burst accidents. It is necessary to continuously strengthen the implementation of the safety responsibility system, improve the work efficiency of the government and management level, and enhance the timeliness of emergency decision-making.