Mechanisation, wages, and royalties: Unpacking coal lock-in through 120 years of parliamentary debates in the world's largest exporter

Abstract

Australia is the world's largest exporter of coal by value, and only recently lost out on volume to neighbouring Indonesia. This paper examines 120 years of parliamentary debates to better understand how Australia attained this position and the lessons this has for a carbon constrained future. The paper adopts a socio-technical transitions perspective, drawing on parliamentary records, historical literature and socio-economic statistics. This comprehensive large-scale analysis uses established dynamic topic modelling methods, and contributes novel tools and methods to aid the quality, interpretation and reproduction of the presented results. Results show that after supply and workers' rights problems, a mid-century compromise was reached between the main political parties (and industrial actors). This compromise relied on increasing the efficiency and hence profitability of mines. Profits would be shared with workers to remove industrial disputes. This initiative set off a path-dependent trajectory of growth that forestalled competition from lower-wage producers like Indonesia and hampered reactions as climate change came to the fore. Attention to coal in the Australian federal parliament is now at even higher levels than in the 1950s. However, while a similar compromise appears necessary, it does not seem forthcoming.