Measuring the systemic risk transfer from the United States to the South African financial sector

Abstract

ABSTRACTThe sub-prime crisis in 2008 illustrated how systemic risk in the financial sector of one country could spread to the financial sectors in other countries, and subsequently result in a global financial crisis. This direct transfer of systemic risk was made possible by phenomena such as contagion and common shocks. The way in which these elements of interconnectedness can magnify seemingly small levels of systemic risk, and subsequently transfer between financial sectors illustrate the necessity for a more in-depth analysis. This measurement is done using three approaches. A dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model is used to investigate contagion. To analyse the volatility spillover effect from the US to SA, an exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (EGARCH) model is employed. Finally, a new contribution is made where a marginal expected shortfall (MES) model is used to set the FTSE/JSE All-Share Index (ALSI) as a hypothetical bank in the financial sector of the S&P 500. All approaches show weak evidence for a direct systemic risk transfer and therefore indicate that any systemic risk transfer is more likely to take an indirect form through changes in capital flows or interest rates.