Measuring the Social Net Benefits of COVID-19 Restrictions: The Case of Reduced Vehicle Use in a Pollution-Prone Region of Utah

Ethan Hartley,Arthur J Caplan

doi:10.4236/jep.2021.1211052

Abstract

A number of natural experiments have recently found that COVID-19 restrictions imposed in nations worldwide are correlated with short-term reductions—in some cases dramatic reductions—in mobile-source air pollutants. Noticeably absent from these studies are estimates of the social net benefits associated with the changes in human behavior underlying the pandemic-induced effects. Using readily available data provided by the state of Utah and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Co-Benefits Risk Assessment Health Impacts Screening and Mapping Tool (COBRA), we find that daily social net benefit was positive during a pandemic-induced shutdown from March to April, 2020 in Utah’s Wasatch Front region solely when COBRA’s “high” health benefit estimate from combined reductions in PM2.5 and NOx concentrations are weighed against the region’s “low” vehicle-trip cost estimate. All other scenarios correspond with negative net benefit estimates, i.e., when high and low benefit estimates of reductions solely in PM2.5 concentrations as well as for combined reductions in PM2.5 and NOx concentrations are weighed against the region’s high vehicle-trip cost estimate. Generally speaking, social net benefits are higher for two of the Wasatch Front’s four counties.

Highlights

Using readily available data provided by the state of Utah and the U.S Environmental Protection Agency’s Co-Benefits Risk Assessment Health Impacts Screening and Mapping Tool (COBRA), we find that daily social net benefit was positive during a pandemic-induced shutdown from March to April, 2020 in Utah’s Wasatch Front region solely when COBRA’s “high” health benefit estimate from combined reductions in PM2.5 and NOx concentrations are weighed against the region’s “low” vehicle-trip cost estimate
Caplan and truck traffic were roughly 45% - 70% and 20% - 55%, respectively. Absent from these studies are estimates of the social net benefits associated with the changes in human behavior underlying the pandemic-induced effects (notwithstanding [11], which develops an interesting empirical approach to measure public health benefits associated with reductions in cumulative confirmed COVID-19 (CCC) cases using total capitalization of 14 stock market indices for large-cap stocks, as well as an estimated elasticity of CCC cases obtained from a panel-data analysis of daily observations from the third week of January to the first week of April, 2020)
All other scenarios correspond with negative benefit estimates, i.e., when high and low benefit estimates of reductions solely in PM2.5 concentrations as well as for combined reductions in PM2.5 and NOx concentrations are weighed against the region’s high vehicle-trip cost estimate

Summary

Introduction

Economists in particular, are continually (and unapologetically) on the lookout for crises or turn-of-events that foster natural. Caplan and truck traffic were roughly 45% - 70% and 20% - 55%, respectively Absent from these studies are estimates of the social net benefits associated with the changes in human behavior underlying the pandemic-induced effects (notwithstanding [11], which develops an interesting empirical approach to measure public health benefits associated with reductions in cumulative confirmed COVID-19 (CCC) cases using total capitalization of 14 stock market indices for large-cap stocks, as well as an estimated elasticity of CCC cases obtained from a panel-data analysis of daily observations from the third week of January to the first week of April, 2020). As such, estimating the health damages avoided as a result of the pandemic-induced reduction in concentrations, and comparing these savings with an estimate of the attendant costs incurred by households as they reduced their vehicle usage, enables us to weigh the estimates against each other to determine the social net benefit associated with COVID-19’s impact on mobile-source air pollution in the Wasatch Front.

Utah’s Wasatch Front

Social Net Benefit Estimates

Findings

Summary and Conclusions